I just finished reading Jared Diamond's "Guns, Germs, and Steel: The
Fates of Human Societies", 1997.  It is a very interesting, even
exciting, book.  It addresses itself to the ultimate reasons why
Europeans discovered and occupied the Americas and not the reverse.
Tackling this conundrum involves examining the history of the last
13,000 years from an unusual perspective.

One paragraph in the epilogue comparing the advancement of China and
Europe in that last 1,000 years particularly struck me.

   "These comparisons suggest that geographic connectedness has exerted
    both positive and negative effects on the evolution of technology.
    As a result, in the very long run, technology may have developed
    most rapidly in regions with moderate connectedness, neither too
    high nor too low.  ..."

In other words, China's early political unity, since 221 BC, was an
advantage until perhaps 1400 AD.  But at also allowed "minor" political
mistakes such as dismantling its ocean going fleets of exploration in
1433, to become permanent.  In contrast, Europe's fragmented political
landscape, meant that Portugal's mistake in turning Columbus away,
became Spain's opportunity to control the lion's share of the new world.
Many other examples from the last 13,000 years of this general principal
are found throughout the book.

If you are familiar with Chris Langston and others work on the edge of
chaos and Stuart Kauffman's extension of these ideas into politics that
he calls patches, this passage rings a huge, loud bell that has "bingo!"
written all over it.  Diamond doesn't really make this connection,
however.  But, I find this connection between history and complexity
theory fascinating.  If you like stories of deep, tangled connections
with powerful relevance to the modern world, read this book.

If you like this book, you should also check-out a science fiction book
by Orson Scott Card called "Pastwatch: The Redemption of Christopher
Columbus", 1996.  It deals with a "practical" application of some of the
theories presented by Diamond (a year after "Pastwatch" was written!).

Ted Anderson (29-July-2001)